Grant number: TED2021-132846A-I00

Spain and the rest of the European Union (EU) are currently undergoing an ecological transition, with a crucial focus on transforming carbon-based energy systems into ones reliant on renewable energy sources. This shift will significantly alter Europe’s natural resource needs. In a post-carbon economy, reliance on fossil fuel imports—such as oil and natural gas—will decrease. While this shift is promising for the EU's climate change goals and its objective of achieving strategic autonomy, the implications for fossil fuel-exporting countries may be less favorable. Changing European (and global) energy consumption patterns can lead to more volatile markets and decreased state revenues for oil-rich countries, potentially resulting in political and socio-economic instability.

In the OILDOWN project, we explore how the renewable energy transition may impact political stability in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This inquiry is guided by three key sub-questions:

Past Experiences: We examine historical oil gluts to identify conditions that have influenced the political stability of oil-rich countries. This analysis helps us determine which countries are more vulnerable to instability in periods of low oil demand.

Policy Responses in Oil-Rich Countries: We look at the current reform efforts in oil-rich countries in anticipation of shifts in global energy consumption patterns. Our goal is to understand why some countries pursue more ambitious reforms than others, along with the motivations and considerations behind their specific policy responses.

EU Policy Responses: We analyze whether EU policies acknowledge the potential repercussions of the renewable energy transition on the political and socio-economic stability of oil-rich countries. Additionally, we evaluate the preparedness of existing EU policies in addressing these risks.

Bringing these three elements together will provide a nuanced understanding of the complex interactions between the renewable energy transition in Europe and the stability of oil-rich countries in the MENA region.

Research Clusters related to the project

• Norms and Rules in International Politics
• Security, Conflict and Peace