The Pathways of the Green Transition in the MENA
Mohamed Ismail Sabry (Merian Center for Advanced Studies in the Maghreb)
Seminar of the Research Cluster “Climate Change, Natural Resources, and Sustainability”
This presentation investigates the pathway governing the green transition in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, including green hydrogen schemes and with a focus on Tunisia and Morocco. The theoretical framework builds on the literature on policy coalitions, while the methodology depends on process tracing and qualitative data collected during fieldtrip visits. The European Union’s growing demand on renewables and decarbonization represents a largely exogenous cause that triggered certain mechanisms through the activities of various state and social actors. Contextual conditions through the activities of various state and social actors then shaped the impact of these activities on the resulting pathway. The main sets of collective actors that are considered are the state, businesspeople, labor, and civil society organizations, where each of these sets consist of different actors that are carved out based on their interests (or risks) from the green transition. This work identifies different possible pathways that characterize the transition and differentiate between them in terms of their extractivity/inclusivity and stability. Based on this theoretical perspective, the work will analyze the pathways of Tunisia and Morocco. The presentation will end with a brief reflection on the pathways of other MENA countries.